Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa63f…4f7b sports 80 markets active 1d ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$408 (-15%) realized −$253 · open −$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate26%17W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$173
14 days−$194
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$242
other 31% −$259
crypto 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -38.2% -44.1% 30% 30% -25.1%
≤30d 21 -41.1% -46.7% 29% 29% -26.6%
≤90d 24 -42.5% -48.0% 29% 29% -30.2%
all 66 -35.8% -41.9% 26% 17% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.9% 17% -24.8%
10% -47.4% 17% -32.0%
15% -52.5% 17% -38.6%
20% -57.2% 11% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$14 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$454
Realized−$253
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses17 / 49
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions14
Markets (closed)66 / 80
History coverage108d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+47%)
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $30 $68 +$38 (+125%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $50 $21 −$29 (-58%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+67%)
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $70 $9 −$61 (-88%)
Will Depay Memphis be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $8 −$42 (-83%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $70 $8 −$62 (-89%)
Will Bradley Barcola be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+50%)
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $30 $3 −$27 (-88%)
Will Memphis Depay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 −$17 -33%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $41 −$36 -87%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $86 +$81 +94%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $132 +$60 +46%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the announcers say "History" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 12 $39 −$38 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$32 -64%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 +$33 +129%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $51 +$26 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $81 +$37 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $77 −$75 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $81 −$7 -8%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $81 −$2 -2%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FaZe (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 31 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 31 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Mar 29 $30 +$13 +44%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pla Mar 15 $26 −$8 -30%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Mar 13 $1 $0 -12%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs Mar 13 $23 −$8 -34%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - CCT Europe Seri Mar 12 $67 −$13 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 12 $5 +$2 +43%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Wildcard LAN Grou Mar 12 $1 $0 -22%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 09 $8 −$1 -14%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $102 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $30 −$10 -32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $23 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $4 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $3 $0 -2%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Mar 07 $11 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Mar 06 $5 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 06 $10 −$8 -75%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 06 $23 −$4 -17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 06 $22 −$9 -38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Mar 06 $13 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Mar 06 $8 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs NIP (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 05 $22 +$12 +55%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 04 $24 −$17 -69%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 04 $42 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 04 $2 +$3 +132%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 04 $24 −$21 -87%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stag Mar 04 $10 −$9 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $41 28h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $34 28h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 33h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 33h
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 2d
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 2d
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2d
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2d
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 2d
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 3d
Will Bradley Barcola be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 3d
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will Memphis Depay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 1¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 3¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $20 3d
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl SELL No 100¢ $192 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 47¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $15 3d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World BUY Yes 17¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $454.17 · official $454.17 (match) · 996 history records