Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A6 0xa63f…7a4b crypto 178 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$878 (-3%) realized −$878 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate75%134W / 44L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$257
sports 34% −$1,174
finance 4% +$3
other 0% +$10
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 23 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 23 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 0% -8.9%
all 178 -1.5% -10.9% 75% 24% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 24% -11.9%
10% -19.4% 16% -20.4%
15% -27.2% 9% -28.1%
20% -34.4% 3% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$96 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$878
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses134 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage242d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 21 $43 $0 +0%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 21 $109 +$1 +1%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) Jun 21 $46 $0 +1%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 21 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $152 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $153 $0 +0%
Spread: Belgium (-5.5) Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5) Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) Jun 21 $106 +$1 +1%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $152 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $152 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $152 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $152 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET Jun 21 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $130 +$10 +7%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Nov 28 $900 −$775 -86%
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Nov 27 $55 $0 +1%
Packers vs. Lions Nov 27 $303 −$61 -20%
Pistons vs. Celtics Nov 27 $315 −$105 -33%
Eagles vs. Cowboys Nov 24 $65 −$60 -92%
Jaguars vs. Cardinals Nov 23 $82 +$15 +18%
Colts vs. Chiefs Nov 23 $375 +$70 +19%
Capitals vs. Canadiens Nov 21 $154 −$98 -64%
Knicks vs. Mavericks Nov 20 $140 +$14 +10%
Warriors vs. Heat Nov 20 $122 +$14 +11%
Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo Nov 20 $108 +$17 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Nov 19 $70 +$29 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Nov 19 $570 +$30 +5%
Islanders vs. Stars Nov 19 $216 −$165 -76%
Devils vs. Lightning Nov 19 $180 +$36 +20%
Knicks vs. Heat Nov 18 $234 +$81 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Nov 17 $127 +$16 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3PM ET Nov 17 $223 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Nov 17 $380 +$20 +5%
Lions vs. Eagles Nov 17 $108 −$50 -46%
Ravens vs. Browns Nov 17 $829 +$110 +13%
Spread: Ravens (-7.5) Nov 16 $143 −$143 -100%
Panthers vs. Falcons Nov 16 $38 −$26 -70%
Buccaneers vs. Bills Nov 16 $186 +$64 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Nov 16 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Nov 16 $73 +$27 +37%
Oklahoma vs. Alabama Nov 15 $75 −$22 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) BUY Athletics 100¢ $43 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) BUY Athletics 99¢ $109 1h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 99¢ $59 2h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 99¢ $46 2h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $34 3h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $106 3h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $2 3h
Spread: Belgium (-5.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $151 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 24h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 93¢ $130 27h
Chiefs vs. Cowboys SELL Chiefs 9¢ $37 206d
Chiefs vs. Cowboys SELL Chiefs 7¢ $68 206d
Chiefs vs. Cowboys SELL Chiefs 16¢ $20 206d
Chiefs vs. Cowboys BUY Chiefs 60¢ $900 206d
Packers vs. Lions SELL Lions 6¢ $12 206d
Packers vs. Lions BUY Lions 49¢ $46 206d
Packers vs. Lions BUY Lions 49¢ $19 206d
Packers vs. Lions BUY Lions 49¢ $33 206d
Packers vs. Lions SELL Lions 46¢ $230 206d
Packers vs. Lions BUY Lions 41¢ $124 206d
Packers vs. Lions BUY Lions 41¢ $81 206d
Pistons vs. Celtics BUY Pistons 40¢ $120 207d
Pistons vs. Celtics SELL Pistons 42¢ $210 207d
Pistons vs. Celtics BUY Pistons 39¢ $5 207d
Pistons vs. Celtics BUY Pistons 39¢ $64 207d
Pistons vs. Celtics BUY Pistons 39¢ $29 207d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 627 history records