Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa63b…7757 sports 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$36 (+12%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$5
sports 48% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 47% +0.0%
≤30d 32 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 47% +0.0%
≤90d 32 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 47% +0.0%
all 32 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 47% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 47% +0.0%
10% -17.8% 47% -9.5%
15% -25.7% 41% -18.3%
20% -33.0% 34% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$2 +8%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -85%
France vs. Iraq: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 +$5 +103%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +39%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 +$5 +107%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 +$6 +23%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -67%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$24 +238%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$5 +105%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +58%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1 +$4 +388%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $9 +$2 +25%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $25 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $0 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 23h
France vs. Iraq: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $1 23h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 23h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 23h
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $1 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 25h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $7 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $11 25h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 26h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 27h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $0 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 27h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $1 28h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $1 29h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 29h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 29h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 32h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records