Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa63a…d5dd other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate42%23W / 32L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$6
politics 25% +$1
other 23% +$2
economics 4% +$2
culture 3% +$7
tech 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.6% -10.9% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 14 -7.0% -15.9% 7% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 14 -7.0% -15.9% 7% 0% -10.8%
all 55 +3.3% -6.5% 42% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 7% -9.1%
10% -15.5% 4% -17.8%
15% -23.6% 4% -25.8%
20% -31.1% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses23 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage480d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $28 $0 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $63 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $106 −$3 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $65 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $52 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $34 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $17 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 08 $6 $0 +3%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 24 $26 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 19 $1 $0 -28%
Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Apr 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 15 $2 $0 +9%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Apr 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Apr 14 $22 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 11–18? Apr 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 13 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 11 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days? Apr 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 08 $25 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $20 $0 +0%
Eric Adams a Republican before April? Apr 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? Apr 04 $1 +$3 +266%
Ripple above $2.30 on April 4? Apr 03 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Mar 31 $1 $0 +14%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 30 $15 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 29 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $26 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $12 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $12 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $26 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 34h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $28 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $28 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $29 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $28 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $1 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $30 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $30 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $29 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $33 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $18 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $18 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $4 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $28 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.80 · official $26.80 (match) · 174 history records