Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa639…a48f other 666 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,246 (-2%) realized −$7,211 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%635W / 27L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$615per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$2,523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days+$132
14 days+$596
30 days−$8,383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$751
sports 21% −$1,135
world 17% −$6,049
politics 14% +$1,736
crypto 7% +$98
finance 3% +$49
culture 1% +$19
tech 1% +$9
weather 1% +$14
economics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -3.0% -12.2% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 210 -4.3% -13.4% 92% 2% -14.0%
≤90d 662 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 2% -10.8%
all 662 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 2% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 2% -10.8%
10% -19.1% 2% -19.4%
15% ← realistic here -26.9% 1% -27.2%
20% -34.0% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$998) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$501 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$2,523
Realized−$7,211
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses635 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions4
Markets (closed)662 / 666
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$615
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 662 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,500 $1,502 +$2 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $874 $876 +$1 (+0%)
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $89 $50 −$39 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $82 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $1,500 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $286 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $241 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $1,531 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $850 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $375 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $750 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $993 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1,096 +$4 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1,160 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $985 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $1,049 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $1,096 +$4 +0%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,571 +$14 +1%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,495 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,250 +$8 +1%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,500 +$6 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $435 −$186 -43%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $120 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1,502 +$11 +1%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1,500 +$8 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1,500 +$8 +0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $229 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $234 +$1 +0%
Federico Valverde: 3+ goals Jun 16 $376 +$1 +0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $399 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $332 +$3 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $2,019 +$7 +0%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $366 +$1 +0%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $1,417 +$4 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1,514 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1,500 +$9 +1%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $142 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1,015 +$4 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $232 +$2 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Take First Corner Jun 15 $370 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $129 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $651 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $375 +$1 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $837 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $163 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $198 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 15 $4,520 +$16 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $2,165 +$20 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $318 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 14 $2,625 +$11 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1,500 +$6 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? BUY No 100¢ $94 40m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $82 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $1,048 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $194 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $457 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $83 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? BUY No 100¢ $179 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $243 1h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $1,536 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? BUY No 100¢ $1,227 1h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? BUY No 100¢ $100 3h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? BUY No 100¢ $1,431 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $855 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $378 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $754 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $418 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $578 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $744 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $249 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $444 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $60 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $60 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $18 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $20 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $55 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $443 7h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY No 100¢ $100 7h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? BUY No 100¢ $1,390 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,522.77 · official $2,522.77 (match) · 3500 history records