Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa639…7135
other · 59 markets active 10h ago
0.0score
−$9,622 -60%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8,426 · open −$1,196
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$164
Realized−$8,426
Unrealized−$1,196
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses4 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Open positions26
Markets (closed)33 / 59
Avg bet$271
Trades / day232.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit2%
Chart Positions 26 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$621
7 days−$8,429
14 days−$8,426
30 days−$8,426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $113 $28 −$85 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $87 $22 −$66 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $222 $17 −$205 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $47 $15 −$32 (-67%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $23 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $165 $11 −$154 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $22 $6 −$16 (-71%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $242 $6 −$236 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $19 $6 −$13 (-70%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $100 $4 −$96 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $14 $3 −$11 (-80%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $49 $3 −$46 (-95%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $115 $2 −$113 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $2 −$14 (-89%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $1 −$10 (-90%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-84%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $13 $1 −$11 (-91%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $18 $1 −$17 (-95%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $23 $1 −$22 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $635 +$199 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $548 +$422 +77%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $397 −$387 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,845 −$2,773 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $2,585 −$247 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $653 −$636 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $949 +$826 +87%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $647 −$627 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $179 −$174 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1,042 −$1,009 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $34 −$32 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $218 −$212 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $351 −$348 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $533 −$521 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $666 −$646 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $241 −$234 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 08 $54 −$51 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $375 −$369 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $62 −$59 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $73 −$72 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $659 −$657 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 07 $63 −$59 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $283 −$273 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $41 −$39 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $236 −$232 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $7 −$6 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $134 −$133 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $30 −$28 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $34 −$32 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $3 +$2 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 96% −$9,821
world 4% +$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $834 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $61 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $558 17h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $805 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $66 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $125 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $191 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $35 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $33 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $19 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $26 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $57 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $67 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $71 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $648 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $83 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $263 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $701 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $1,637 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $96 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-79.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -81.7% -83.4% 9% 9% -62.7%
≤30d 33 -77.1% -79.3% 12% 12% -62.7%
≤90d 33 -77.1% -79.3% 12% 12% -62.7%
all 33 -77.1% -79.3% 12% 12% -62.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover232.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -79.3% 12% -62.7%
10% ← realistic here -81.3% 12% -66.2%
15% -83.1% 9% -69.5%
20% -84.7% 9% -72.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.08 · official $164.09 (match) · 1737 history records