Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:49:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa637…f530 other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+0%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 109L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$12
politics 30% −$8
sports 11% +$73
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 82 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 122 +1.0% -8.6% 11% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 6% -9.3%
10% -17.3% 6% -18.0%
15% -25.3% 4% -25.9%
20% -32.7% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$0 · ×17.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 109
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage130d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $247 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $177 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $241 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $58 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $354 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $177 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $170 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $173 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $220 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $202 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $157 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $219 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $166 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $377 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 12 $184 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $170 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $170 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $220 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $389 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $163 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $399 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $400 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $167 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $207 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $171 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $182 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $178 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 7h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 9h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 14h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $31 28h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $31 33h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 33h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 42h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 7d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 11d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 16d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 16d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 17d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 17d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 18d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 18d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 356 history records