Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

A6 0xa635…5520 other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,971 (+6%) realized +$1,897 · open +$74

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip

Net edge-27%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate60%9W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,617per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Fees−$152est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$844now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$436

7 days+$462

14 days+$462

30 days+$1,396

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-19.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-13.7%	-21.9%	64%	36%	-8.0%
≤30d	15	-11.2%	-19.7%	60%	40%	-5.5%
≤90d	15	-11.2%	-19.7%	60%	40%	-5.5%
all	15	-11.2%	-19.7%	60%	40%	-5.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-19.7%	40%	-5.5%
10% ← realistic here	-27.4%	40%	-14.6%
15%	-34.4%	33%	-22.8%
20%	-40.8%	20%	-30.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 80% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -2% → late -20% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$910 vs −$1,132 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.21 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$844

Realized+$1,897

Unrealized+$74

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses9 / 6

Est. fees paid−$152

Open positions5

Markets (closed)15 / 20

History coverage18d

Avg bet$1,617

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$500	$521	+$21 (+4%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Yes	32¢	50¢	$110	$168	+$58 (+53%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	13¢	$100	$95	−$5 (-5%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$255	+$135	+53%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$101	−$101	-100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$102	+$47	+46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$1,119	+$375	+34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$101	+$5	+5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10,411	+$592	+6%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$5,129	+$5,156	+100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$5,002	+$257	+5%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 12	$5,984	−$5,984	-100%
Spurs vs. Thunder	Jun 02	$510	+$215	+42%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 31	$1,808	+$1,405	+78%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$487	−$356	-73%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$512	−$330	-65%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	38¢	$103	21m
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$51	1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$255	4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$104	14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$517	14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	77¢	$1,017	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$102	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	91¢	$101	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$102	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$101	2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$10,411	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	35¢	$1,544	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	31¢	$1,031	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Spurs	69¢	$2,773	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	61¢	$2,554	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	94¢	$5,002	4d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	91¢	$4,987	6d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	89¢	$997	6d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Spurs	69¢	$510	17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	55¢	$1,495	17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	55¢	$313	17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	SELL Yes	8¢	$131	17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	SELL Yes	21¢	$181	17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	28¢	$487	17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	56¢	$512	17d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $844.43 · official $844.43 (match) · 43 history records