Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa62f…fbd1 crypto 365 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$154 (-14%) realized −$154 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%131W / 234L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$30
14 days−$46
30 days−$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$165
sports 10% +$1
world 4% −$4
other 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -34.8% -41.1% 42% 42% -42.9%
≤30d 242 -43.7% -49.0% 25% 25% -46.3%
≤90d 365 -15.7% -23.8% 36% 35% -24.1%
all 365 -15.7% -23.8% 36% 35% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 35% -24.1%
10% -31.1% 34% -31.4%
15% -37.7% 33% -38.0%
20% -43.8% 32% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses131 / 234
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)365 / 365
History coverage67d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 365 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$5 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 862 history records