Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:12:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A6 0xa62d…077c sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$471 (+31%) realized +$474 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$267
other 41% +$45
crypto 11% +$51
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +61.8% +46.4% 50% 50% +20.4%
≤30d 36 +61.8% +46.4% 50% 50% +20.4%
≤90d 36 +61.8% +46.4% 50% 50% +20.4%
all 36 +61.8% +46.4% 50% 50% +20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.4% 50% +20.4%
10% +32.4% 50% +8.9%
15% +19.6% 50% -1.7%
20% +7.9% 44% -11.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +81% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$19 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$381
Realized+$474
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions14
Markets (closed)36 / 50
History coverage5d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $35 $41 +$6 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-35%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $54 −$2 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $81 +$81 +99%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$19 +238%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $22 −$22 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $122 −$120 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $46 +$61 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $53 +$74 +140%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$31 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +238%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$7 +129%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$76 +1469%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $29 +$105 +365%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $107 +$59 +55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 +$11 +63%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $47 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.83 · official $380.84 (match) · 118 history records