Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A6 0xa62c…11ac sports 65 markets active 9h ago coverage 443d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$22 (+6%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%29W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$39
other 11% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +131.0% +109.0% 38% 38% -16.2%
≤30d 17 +101.6% +82.4% 41% 41% +13.3%
≤90d 32 +21.1% +9.6% 28% 28% -13.7%
all 61 +23.2% +11.4% 48% 48% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.4% 48% -2.7%
10% +0.8% 48% -12.0%
15% -9.0% 48% -20.5%
20% -17.9% 39% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

443d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses29 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 65
History coverage443d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$7 +323%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1845%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 21 $44 +$42 +96%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $21 +$23 +109%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Raptors vs. Lakers Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Pelicans vs. Nets Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Warriors vs. 76ers Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Pacers vs. Thunder Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Nets Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Heat vs. Warriors Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Lakers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Lakers vs. 76ers Apr 26 $10 −$5 -52%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Bulls Apr 26 $3 +$3 +92%
Celtics vs. Raptors Dec 08 $5 +$4 +72%
Pistons vs. Heat Dec 02 $5 +$7 +138%
Heat vs. Bulls Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Clippers Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 11 $5 +$2 +47%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Nuggets vs. Kings Apr 11 $5 +$3 +56%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Pelicans vs. Nets Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 09 $5 +$3 +59%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 09 $5 +$5 +96%
Kings vs. Pistons Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Pacers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $5 +$8 +150%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 07 $5 +$9 +186%
Raptors vs. Nets Apr 07 $5 +$4 +75%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 06 $5 +$3 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 13¢ $2 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 23¢ $2 13h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 13h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 46¢ $5 29h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 33¢ $3 29h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 33h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 37h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $10 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $10 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $5 18d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 18d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $5 23d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 51¢ $44 51d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves SELL Timberwolves 100¢ $44 53d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 47¢ $21 53d
Warriors vs. Suns BUY Warriors 42¢ $5 61d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Hornets 60¢ $15 61d
Heat vs. Warriors BUY Heat 32¢ $3 150d
Raptors vs. Lakers BUY Raptors 36¢ $5 150d
Lakers vs. 76ers SELL 76ers 40¢ $5 192d
Lakers vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 41¢ $5 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.09 · official $9.09 · 121 history records