Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A6 0xa62a…f05b sports 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11,797 (-4%) realized −$11,773 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate74%101W / 36L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,989per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$1,535est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$4,302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,180
7 days+$1,180
14 days+$1,180
30 days−$15,003
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$15,669
other 17% +$5,923
politics 2% +$1,177
world 1% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -14.5% -22.6% 73% 64% -5.8%
≤30d 68 -10.2% -18.8% 74% 56% -18.4%
≤90d 137 -7.4% -16.3% 74% 58% -12.3%
all 137 -7.4% -16.3% 74% 58% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 58% -12.3%
10% -24.3% 26% -20.7%
15% -31.6% 13% -28.3%
20% -38.3% 7% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$2,011) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$524 vs −$1,709 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$4,302
Realized−$11,773
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses101 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$1,535
Open positions2
Markets (closed)137 / 139
History coverage48d
Avg bet$1,989
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 90¢ 90¢ $3,000 $2,983 −$17 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 88¢ $1,326 $1,318 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,003 +$94 +9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,715 +$713 +42%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,640 +$177 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,925 +$424 +14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,385 +$540 +23%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,003 +$111 +11%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8,029 +$1,062 +13%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 Jun 20 $1,196 −$1,179 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7,032 +$1,239 +18%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 06 $441 −$437 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $14,126 −$14,000 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 05 $5,800 −$5,734 -99%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $1,205 +$124 +10%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) Jun 04 $101 +$21 +21%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5) Jun 04 $111 +$56 +50%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $508 +$324 +64%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $1,867 −$1,810 -97%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $1,509 +$256 +17%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 04 $1,004 +$159 +16%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 04 $1,205 +$183 +15%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 04 $502 +$60 +12%
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) Jun 04 $188 +$30 +16%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $1,004 +$111 +11%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $2,006 +$168 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5,038 −$5,000 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 04 $515 +$102 +20%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 171.5 Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 172.5 Jun 04 $120 −$120 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 173.5 Jun 04 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 03 $505 −$505 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $1,001 +$20 +2%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $1,977 +$707 +36%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $500 +$16 +3%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 02 $3,006 +$200 +7%
Centurion 2: Luc Koenig vs Semen Pankin Jun 01 $1,004 +$167 +17%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $1,312 −$1,300 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 31 $2,010 +$408 +20%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 31 $1,505 +$189 +13%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $1,001 +$50 +5%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $201 +$29 +14%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 30 $2,007 +$241 +12%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2,019 +$922 +46%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 29 $582 +$25 +4%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 29 $1,003 +$124 +12%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 29 $2,011 +$427 +21%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 29 $271 +$11 +4%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $5,026 +$1,134 +23%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 29 $502 −$299 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $1,330 30m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,097 30m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $3,009 31m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,003 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $1,640 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,715 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $2,925 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $2,924 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $2,385 35h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 90¢ $1,003 38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $1,007 38h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 50¢ $80 39h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 39h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,015 39h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 81¢ $1,006 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $8,029 40h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 46h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $6,031 2d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 68¢ $441 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 69¢ $7,064 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 70¢ $7,062 15d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 62¢ $5,800 16d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm $57 17d
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,766 17d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 36¢ $1,867 17d
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) BUY Seattle Storm 82¢ $101 17d
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5) BUY Seattle Storm 66¢ $61 17d
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5) BUY Seattle Storm 66¢ $51 17d
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) BUY Knicks 86¢ $188 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 88¢ $1,004 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,301.58 · official $4,301.58 (match) · 352 history records