Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:02:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa62a…174f politics 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%9W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$8
sports 24% −$2
other 23% −$3
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.0% -15.8% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -8.0% -16.8% 7% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 17 -6.6% -15.5% 6% 0% -9.8%
all 83 -8.1% -16.8% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -32.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses9 / 74
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage278d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $94 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -21%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $94 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1 $0 -19%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $96 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $114 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $308 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2 $0 -21%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $93 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $94 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $97 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $206 $0 -0%
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 28 $103 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 8? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Feb 08 $101 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $1 $0 +6%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $103 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 28 $108 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $101 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 26 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 24 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $112 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 23 $104 $0 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 15? Jan 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $2 $0 -20%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 12 $214 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 11 $106 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $2 $0 -20%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $103 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 06 $104 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 01 $105 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 29 $217 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? Dec 26 $104 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Dec 26 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $107 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $108 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $94 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $94 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $94 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 10d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 11d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $96 17d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $96 19d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $93 20d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $93 22d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 23d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 24d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 25d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 25d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.63 · official $0.63 (match) · 373 history records