Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:18:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa623…384f
other · 794 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$1,134 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,141 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30
Realized+$1,141
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses197 / 590
Open positions7
Markets (closed)787 / 794
History coverage599d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%
Chart Positions 7 History 787 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$4
14 days+$148
30 days+$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+46%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+82%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-71%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-52%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$61 +582%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $14 −$13 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3 +$68 +2155%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $10 +$61 +582%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $36 +$58 +159%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $18 +$71 +402%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $4 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $31 +$26 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $14 +$98 +717%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $13 −$12 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $3 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $18 −$17 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $4 +$31 +744%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $21 +$76 +364%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $3 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $4 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 94% +$1,361
politics 3% −$94
world 1% +$11
economics 1% −$36
weather 1% −$85
finance 0% −$10
sports 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $71 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 30h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 31h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 31h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 34h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 44h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 5d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $16 6d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 8d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 11d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $71 11d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 11d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 11d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $71 12d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $94 12d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 12d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $36 14d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.2% -31.5% 11% 11% -14.3%
≤30d 54 +28.4% +16.2% 19% 19% +31.6%
≤90d 129 +23.0% +11.2% 22% 21% +29.3%
all 787 +9.3% -1.1% 25% 24% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 24% -5.1%
10% -10.5% 22% -14.2%
15% -19.2% 21% -22.5%
20% -27.1% 20% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.35 · official $30.37 (match) · 1723 history records