Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A6 0xa622…4448 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$308 (+12%) realized +$244 · open +$64

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%9W / 11L

Drawdown89%max

Avg bet$100per market

Trades / day8.5pace

Fees−$22est.

Kalshi-fit52%portable

Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)+13.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+25.9%	+13.9%	45%	45%	+22.2%
≤30d	20	+25.9%	+13.9%	45%	45%	+22.2%
≤90d	20	+25.9%	+13.9%	45%	45%	+22.2%
all	20	+25.9%	+13.9%	45%	45%	+22.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.9%	45%	+22.2%
10%	+3.0%	45%	+10.5%
15%	-7.0%	45%	-0.2%
20%	-16.1%	45%	-9.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +18% → late +33% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$134 vs −$60 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$264

Realized+$244

Unrealized+$64

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses9 / 11

Est. fees paid−$22

Open positions3

Markets (closed)20 / 25

History coverage4d

Avg bet$100

Trades / day8.5

Drawdown89%

Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal leading at halftime?	Yes	56¢	96¢	$75	$129	+$54 (+72%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	29¢	46¢	$50	$80	+$30 (+60%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Yes	55¢	40¢	$75	$55	−$20 (-27%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$81	+$82	+101%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$319	+$206	+65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$102	−$100	-98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway?	Jun 16	$36	−$35	-98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$51	−$16	-30%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$102	+$201	+197%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$140	+$157	+112%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$154	+$213	+138%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$153	−$150	-98%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$31	−$30	-98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 15	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1	Jun 15	$51	+$247	+482%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador?	Jun 15	$51	+$74	+146%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals	Jun 14	$31	−$30	-98%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals	Jun 14	$20	+$14	+71%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$10	+$9	+86%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	55¢	$76	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	29¢	$51	1h
Portugal leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	56¢	$76	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	47¢	$589	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$81	18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	32¢	$102	18h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway?	BUY Yes	22¢	$36	18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	SELL Yes	11¢	$36	18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$303	18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$51	19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	60¢	$319	19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	33¢	$102	19h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	SELL Yes	74¢	$360	20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	45¢	$38	21h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	15¢	$103	21h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	17¢	$51	21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	47¢	$102	21h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	37¢	$153	25h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	39¢	$51	44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end i	BUY	20¢	$82	44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	22¢	$51	47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	29¢	$51	47h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	28¢	$51	47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	18¢	$31	47h
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Spain	35¢	$102	2d
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador?	BUY Yes	40¢	$51	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1	BUY	17¢	$51	2d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	30¢	$31	2d
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$35	2d
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.89 · official $843.89 · 37 history records