Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:29:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa61f…7993 sports 729 markets active 2h ago coverage 514d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 514d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,376 (-4%) realized −$5,962 · open −$414
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%333W / 394L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$707est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$882
7 days+$428
14 days+$428
30 days−$830
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$8,368
crypto 4% +$287
other 2% +$1,502
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +28.6% +16.4% 29% 29% -1.7%
≤30d 45 +5.8% -4.3% 36% 36% -14.7%
≤90d 337 -74.9% -77.3% 9% 9% -55.7%
all 727 +0.2% -9.3% 46% 43% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 43% -12.7%
10% -18.0% 42% -21.1%
15% -25.9% 40% -28.7%
20% -33.2% 39% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +64% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$206 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

514d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$5,962
Unrealized−$414
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses333 / 394
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$707
Open positions2
Markets (closed)727 / 729
History coverage514d ⚠
Avg bet$241
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 727 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 44¢ 14¢ $396 $126 −$270 (-68%)
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Austria 22¢ 4¢ $176 $32 −$144 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $537 −$530 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $590 −$590 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $65 −$64 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $527 +$473 +90%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $54 +$796 +1477%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $470 −$470 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $492 +$708 +144%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $570 −$570 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $48 −$47 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $377 +$423 +112%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $329 +$371 +113%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $302 +$498 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $224 −$220 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $279 −$246 -88%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $351 −$345 -98%
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5) May 25 $206 +$144 +70%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 24 $254 −$250 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 May 24 $102 +$98 +97%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 23 $557 −$550 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 23 $376 +$324 +86%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 22 $440 −$440 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 22 $591 −$583 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $848 +$752 +89%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 21 $220 −$220 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 21 $424 −$424 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 21 $600 −$600 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 21 $328 +$272 +83%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 21 $438 +$362 +83%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 May 20 $814 −$14 -2%
Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5 May 19 $236 −$232 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $620 −$620 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 172.5 May 19 $219 +$181 +83%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5 May 19 $322 +$278 +86%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $500 +$500 +100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 18 $490 −$17 -4%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5 May 18 $422 +$378 +90%
Washington Mystics vs. Dallas Wings May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) May 17 $105 −$104 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5 Apr 23 $1,798 −$1,783 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) Apr 22 $2,580 −$2,558 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 217.5 Apr 22 $1,614 −$1,592 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) Apr 22 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 22¢ $180 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $403 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $537 4h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $41 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $590 14h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $44 35h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 35h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 36h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 36h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 36h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 36h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 36h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 36h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 36h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 36h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 36h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 37h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $62 37h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $527 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $470 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $33 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.00 · official $158.00 (match) · 3500 history records