Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa61e…0abd
tech · 31 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$48,641 -68%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$20,438 · open −$37,574
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$268,378
Realized+$20,438
Unrealized−$37,574
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions67
Markets (closed)13 / 31
History coverage10d
Avg bet$2,323
Trades / day345.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 67 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,681
7 days+$8,721
14 days+$20,438
30 days+$20,438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 81¢ 85¢ $28,223 $29,706 +$1,483 (+5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $27,467 $29,565 +$2,098 (+8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 32¢ 23¢ $36,176 $26,621 −$9,555 (-26%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15,227 $15,282 +$56 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $11,468 $12,443 +$975 (+8%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $11,711 $11,670 −$41 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 92¢ 99¢ $9,630 $10,416 +$786 (+8%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $10,450 $10,348 −$102 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $8,491 $8,977 +$486 (+6%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 87¢ 92¢ $8,186 $8,646 +$460 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 95¢ 99¢ $8,100 $8,394 +$294 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 11¢ 44¢ $2,042 $7,995 +$5,953 (+292%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 88¢ 99¢ $6,190 $6,912 +$723 (+12%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $6,353 $6,457 +$104 (+2%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 79¢ 82¢ $5,940 $6,188 +$248 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 93¢ 98¢ $5,570 $5,874 +$304 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 89¢ 90¢ $4,518 $4,609 +$91 (+2%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No 85¢ 88¢ $4,254 $4,451 +$196 (+5%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $4,400 $4,425 +$25 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 75¢ 80¢ $3,375 $3,600 +$225 (+7%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $3,037 $3,260 +$223 (+7%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $3,190 $3,201 +$11 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $3,156 $3,195 +$39 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $4,456 $2,984 −$1,472 (-33%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 50¢ 51¢ $2,957 $2,977 +$20 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 +$1,405 +2717532%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 12 $1,612 −$1,142 -71%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 12 $98 −$47 -48%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$34 -93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,650 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,110 +$15 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $4,319 +$5,493 +127%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,155 +$80 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3,450 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $1,650 +$2,910 +176%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $720 +$40 +6%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $13B and $16B at market close Jun 04 $902 −$902 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $13,482 +$12,619 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 78% −$19,734
tech 14% +$9,008
crypto 5% +$12,619
world 2% +$96
politics 1% +$96
economics 0% −$19,403
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 88¢ $100 5m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 88¢ $220 6m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 22m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $495 24m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $25 26m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $62 26m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $194 26m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 26m
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $777 27m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 27m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $528 28m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 29m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 31m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 31m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 31m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 33m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 34m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 35m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $451 36m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 37m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $44 37m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 37m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 37m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 37m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+136.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +191.5% +163.7% 55% 27% +29.9%
≤30d 13 +161.5% +136.6% 54% 31% +45.7%
≤90d 13 +161.5% +136.6% 54% 31% +45.7%
all 13 +161.5% +136.6% 54% 31% +45.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover345.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +136.6% 31% +45.7%
10% +114.0% 31% +31.8%
15% ← realistic here +93.3% 31% +19.0%
20% +74.3% 31% +7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268,377.60 · official $268,378.18 (match) · 3500 history records