Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:06:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa61e…7b55 politics 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$52 (+1%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate78%28W / 8L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 91% +$51
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% +$1
other 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.6% -7.1% 100% 17% -7.3%
≤30d 7 +4.3% -5.6% 100% 29% +2.9%
≤90d 14 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 14% +2.0%
all 36 +2.2% -7.5% 78% 11% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 11% -8.8%
10% -16.4% 3% -17.5%
15% -24.5% 0% -25.5%
20% -31.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×59.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×237.32 per $1 lost it wins $237.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses28 / 8
Open positions15
Markets (closed)36 / 51
History coverage616d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will Carson Williams win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? No 100¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Max Clark win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Leo De Vries win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) win the most seats Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 29? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $130 +$18 +14%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 6? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 6? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 6? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on April 6? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 1? Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 1? Apr 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on December 1? Apr 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $108 +$22 +20%
Will Chris Fomunyoh win the Cameroon Presidential Election? Nov 30 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 4AM ET Nov 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Joshua Osih win the Cameroon Presidential Election? Nov 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $100 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on May 31? Oct 03 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Oct 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio May 23 $37 +$9 +25%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? May 19 $104 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? May 19 $198 +$1 +0%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Jan 19 $103 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win La Liga? Jan 19 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 19 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Dec 17 $3,251 +$1 +0%
Will the Republican candidate win Wisconsin by 4.0% or more? Dec 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? Dec 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship? Dec 17 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting? Nov 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? Nov 11 $920 $0 -0%
Will a Democrat win Colorado Presidential Election? Oct 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will a Republican win Wyoming Presidential Election? Oct 07 $1,123 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 07 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Leo De Vries win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Max Clark win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Carson Williams win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $16 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $16 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.71 · official $84.71 (match) · 687 history records