Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A6 0xa61d…df1a sports 1033 markets active 2h ago coverage 402d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,157 (-2%) realized −$4,395 · open +$238
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate72%746W / 286L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$483est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$311
7 days−$2,010
14 days−$1,464
30 days−$3,753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$5,513
other 25% −$5,398
politics 1% +$4,243
crypto 1% +$716
world 0% −$448
tech 0% +$26
economics 0% +$33
weather 0% +$102
finance 0% +$22
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -8.7% -17.4% 53% 51% -19.0%
≤30d 185 -1.9% -11.2% 65% 54% -15.2%
≤90d 218 -2.5% -11.8% 65% 54% -16.3%
all 1032 -3.5% -12.7% 72% 44% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 44% -12.2%
10% -21.0% 31% -20.6%
15% -28.7% 24% -28.3%
20% -35.7% 16% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$192 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

402d coverage
Net worth$438
Realized−$4,395
Unrealized+$238
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses746 / 286
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$483
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1032 / 1033
History coverage402d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1032 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 30¢ 66¢ $200 $438 +$238 (+119%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,492 −$433 -29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $177 −$174 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $983 +$691 +70%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $201 +$55 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,208 −$1,200 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $573 +$66 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,386 +$684 +49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $254 −$254 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $303 −$303 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $303 −$303 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $204 +$323 +158%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $144 +$97 +67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,504 −$1,015 -68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $186 −$186 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $220 +$30 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $508 +$314 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $944 +$56 +6%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $248 +$333 +134%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $203 +$155 +76%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $204 +$503 +246%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $253 +$144 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $262 +$338 +129%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $806 −$67 -8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $202 +$126 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $303 −$303 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $231 −$231 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $306 −$306 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $291 −$291 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $101 +$34 +34%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $202 +$78 +39%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Daniel Merida Aguila Jun 13 $135 +$35 +26%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $163 −$163 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $609 +$585 +96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $301 +$52 +17%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $605 +$217 +36%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $303 +$166 +55%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $202 +$101 +50%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $222 −$222 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $83 +$58 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $404 +$176 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $404 +$202 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $77 −$77 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $403 −$403 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $1,009 −$783 -78%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $200 +$200 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 30¢ $204 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $1,030 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,492 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 41¢ $177 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $981 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,208 25h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 78¢ $201 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $639 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $573 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,070 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,384 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $152 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $204 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $489 3d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 63¢ $303 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,504 3d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 59¢ $144 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 88¢ $220 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 81¢ $822 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $508 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $186 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $108 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $236 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $264 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $437.66 · official $437.66 (match) · 2520 history records