Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa61b…3d1d sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$500 (-12%) realized −$491 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$654
14 days−$720
30 days−$720
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$818
other 40% +$211
world 3% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -30.7% -37.3% 30% 22% -25.2%
≤30d 32 -32.5% -38.9% 25% 19% -26.1%
≤90d 32 -32.5% -38.9% 25% 19% -26.1%
all 32 -32.5% -38.9% 25% 19% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 19% -26.1%
10% -44.7% 16% -33.1%
15% -50.1% 16% -39.6%
20% -55.0% 6% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$48 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$491
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage9d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 36¢ $60 $51 −$9 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 22 $202 −$83 -41%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $273 +$124 +46%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $13 −$11 -82%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $810 −$159 -20%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 +$71 +47%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +8%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$2 -22%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $431 −$98 -23%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $152 −$24 -16%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $173 +$8 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $151 +$22 +15%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $255 −$48 -19%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $198 −$196 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $152 −$94 -62%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $241 −$89 -37%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $95 −$53 -56%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$45 +90%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$163 +107%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $124 −$122 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 −$46 -91%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$2 -5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $49 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 39¢ $58 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 41¢ $61 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $202 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $397 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $273 4h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL Yes $2 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL $31 5h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $13 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 56¢ $203 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL 59¢ $208 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 56¢ $203 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL 59¢ $207 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 56¢ $203 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL 59¢ $206 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 57¢ $203 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 59¢ $202 29h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $1 31h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $1 31h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $1 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $222 42h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL 45¢ $10 42h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $8 42h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $9 42h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 43h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 44h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 40¢ $9 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 32¢ $63 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $121 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.51 · official $53.36 · 74 history records