Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa61a…4581 crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 568d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$494 (+5%) realized +$497 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate88%69W / 9L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$777now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$380
other 23% +$52
world 13% +$29
politics 11% +$16
weather 8% +$8
tech 2% +$4
sports 2% +$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 22 +3.3% -6.5% 95% 5% -8.1%
all 78 +4.0% -5.9% 88% 6% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 6% -4.9%
10% -14.9% 3% -14.0%
15% -23.2% 1% -22.3%
20% -30.7% 1% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$0 · ×36.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×359.7 per $1 lost it wins $359.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

568d coverage
Net worth$777
Realized+$497
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses69 / 9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)78 / 83
History coverage568d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $206 $204 −$2 (-1%)
Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $197 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $152 $152 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 98¢ 98¢ $122 $122 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $120 +$9 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $34 +$2 +6%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $25 $0 +1%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $286 +$2 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con May 05 $50 +$2 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $77 +$2 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 05 $277 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 22? Apr 23 $93 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on April 22? Apr 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 8°C or below on April 22? Apr 23 $160 $0 +0%
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13 Apr 22 $25 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or higher on April 22? Apr 22 $21 +$6 +31%
Will 10-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 Apr 22 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 12°C on April 21? Apr 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 12°C on April 21? Apr 21 $255 $0 +0%
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $280 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $228 +$1 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 22 $125 +$1 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 05 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? Mar 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Mar 05 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February? Feb 24 $271 +$10 +4%
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? Feb 10 $156 +$6 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in January 2026? Feb 04 $172 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? Feb 04 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Trump shake hands with Mark Carney at the World Economic Forum? Jan 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump shake hands with Keir Starmer at the World Economic Forum? Jan 28 $222 +$4 +2%
Will Trump shake hands with Emmanuel Macron at the World Economic Foru Jan 28 $333 +$11 +3%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher world Jan 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 09 $190 +$2 +1%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 09 $200 +$1 +1%
Senate passes bill to purchase 1m Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 09 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 06 $1,372 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 08 $683 +$2 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 24 $661 +$22 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $230 on October 6? Oct 10 $299 +$351 +117%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $49 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? Oct 04 $71 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 04 $189 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 06 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 06 $110 +$1 +1%
Litecoin ETF approved by July 31? Aug 07 $35 +$6 +18%
Elon no longer world's richest before August? Aug 07 $45 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $122 1h
Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $177 1h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $152 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $101 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $29 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $5 29d
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, BUY No 99¢ $99 29d
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $286 29d
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $25 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $100 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $120 44d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $93 57d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 8°C or below on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $160 58d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on April 22? BUY No 99¢ $100 58d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or higher on April 22? BUY No 76¢ $21 58d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 12°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $255 58d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 12°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $25 58d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $277 62d
Will 10-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 BUY No 98¢ $39 62d
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13 BUY No 98¢ $25 62d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY No 91¢ $50 77d
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con BUY No 97¢ $50 88d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 97¢ $77 88d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $126 88d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $228 97d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $105 105d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February? SELL No 99¢ $281 114d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $125 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $776.56 · official $776.56 (match) · 250 history records