Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:07:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa619…1103 crypto 174 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (161 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$201 (-1%) realized +$5 · open −$206
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate71%98W / 41L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day160.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$5,081now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$302
14 days+$302
30 days+$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$110
other 22% −$72
crypto 21% +$450
tech 7% −$78
economics 5% −$26
politics 4% +$19
weather 1% −$17
finance 1% +$4
sports 0% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (161 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 +1.2% -8.4% 71% 27% -8.0%
≤30d 139 +1.2% -8.4% 71% 27% -8.0%
≤90d 139 +1.2% -8.4% 71% 27% -8.0%
all 139 +1.2% -8.4% 71% 27% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover160.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 27% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 24% -16.8%
15% -25.2% 22% -24.9%
20% -32.5% 19% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$35 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$5,081
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$206
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses98 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions35
Markets (closed)139 / 174
History coverage7d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day160.5
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 84¢ $676 $668 −$8 (-1%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 50¢ 70¢ $248 $346 +$98 (+40%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $302 $303 +$1 (+0%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 63¢ 57¢ $328 $299 −$29 (-9%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 81¢ 84¢ $284 $292 +$9 (+3%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $271 $278 +$7 (+3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 73¢ 68¢ $298 $275 −$22 (-8%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 78¢ 73¢ $269 $250 −$19 (-7%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 98¢ 98¢ $244 $244 −$0 (-0%)
2026 Balance of Power: Other No 99¢ 99¢ $228 $229 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $215 $214 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 92¢ 92¢ $184 $183 −$1 (-1%)
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 48¢ $187 $152 −$34 (-18%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 43¢ 30¢ $214 $149 −$65 (-31%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House No 98¢ 98¢ $133 $132 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $101 $123 +$22 (+22%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 39¢ $106 $83 −$23 (-22%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 82¢ 81¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? No 80¢ 80¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 51¢ 38¢ $100 $73 −$27 (-27%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 89¢ 89¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 79¢ 80¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 96¢ 97¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+1%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $43 $45 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$51 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$55 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$50 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $73 +$76 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$17 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$28 +114%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 23 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $155 +$151 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$45 +422%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $143 +$109 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $111 +$62 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $24 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$56 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$27 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$44 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $104 +$173 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$17 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $8 0m
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $38 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 5m
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 8m
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 9m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 9m
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $41 9m
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 9m
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $5 9m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 12m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $13 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $36 25m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $18 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $37 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 46m
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY No 80¢ $16 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,081.30 · official $5,125.97 (match) · 1230 history records