Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:57:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A6 0xa616…5368 crypto 351 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$67 (+5%) realized +$71 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%146W / 160L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day34.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$36
weather 19% −$4
sports 16% +$6
other 2% −$9
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 292 +6.2% -3.9% 49% 46% -4.9%
≤90d 306 +4.4% -5.5% 48% 44% -6.6%
all 306 +4.4% -5.5% 48% 44% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 44% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 42% -15.6%
15% -22.8% 39% -23.7%
20% -30.4% 31% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized+$71
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses146 / 160
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions45
Markets (closed)306 / 351
History coverage30d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $17 $25 +$8 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Yes 37¢ 26¢ $18 $12 −$5 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? No 23¢ 96¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+318%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? No 68¢ 74¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? No 31¢ 52¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? No 64¢ 59¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? No 17¢ 29¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 25 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 25 $5 +$2 +48%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 $0 +22%
Will Girona FC vs. Elche CF end in a draw? May 23 $2 $0 +7%
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-1.5) May 23 $4 +$1 +16%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $4 +$1 +34%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $4 −$1 -29%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a dr May 23 $2 $0 -2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $1 −$1 -73%
Sporting Kansas City vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5 May 23 $1 $0 -5%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 May 23 $2 $0 -5%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 $0 -5%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 May 23 $3 $0 -2%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 May 23 $3 $0 -9%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 23 $2 $0 -7%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 May 23 $2 $0 -6%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 23 $1 $0 +39%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $3 $0 -4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 23 $4 $0 -7%
Will Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw? May 23 $1 $0 -8%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 22 $1 $0 -11%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 22 $2 $0 -3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $1 $0 -20%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 22 $1 $0 -28%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 22 $4 $0 -1%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $5 $0 -5%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 22 $4 $0 -5%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 May 22 $4 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 22 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 22 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 22 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 22 $2 +$3 +121%
BNB Up or Down - May 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 22 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 18¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 31¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 31¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 64¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 18¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 21¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.82 · official $237.12 (match) · 1313 history records