Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa616…f60e other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$326 (-2%) realized −$351 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,297per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$5,060now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$43
14 days−$248
30 days−$359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$36
other 28% −$370
world 21% +$51
economics 13% +$27
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.1% -10.5% 67% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 13 -9.2% -17.8% 54% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 13 -9.2% -17.8% 54% 0% -11.6%
all 13 -9.2% -17.8% 54% 0% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 0% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 0% -20.1%
15% -32.9% 0% -27.8%
20% -39.4% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$78 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$5,060
Realized−$351
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage17d
Avg bet$1,297
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,934 $1,942 +$8 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,832 $1,844 +$12 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,270 $1,274 +$5 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $1,386 +$22 +2%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $1,355 −$80 -6%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $1,378 +$14 +1%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $1,833 +$9 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,833 +$34 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,835 −$279 -15%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $2,031 +$23 +1%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec Jun 04 $543 +$4 +1%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 04 $780 +$5 +1%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $2,049 −$104 -5%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $142 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $334 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $27 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1,212 27h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $8 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $33 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $301 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $36 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $33 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $16 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $32 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $41 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $39 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $38 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $15 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $19 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $24 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $21 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $10 5d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $170 5d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $149 5d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $70 5d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $49 5d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $283 6d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $23 6d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $321 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1,061 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $771 7d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 8d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 8d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? BUY Yes 100¢ $67 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,060.40 · official $5,059.47 (match) · 205 history records