Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa615…1b57
crypto · 21 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses5 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 21 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$5 +451%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $8 −$6 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +283%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 76% $0
politics 24% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 10¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -8.1% -16.9% 24% 24% -26.2%
≤30d 21 -8.1% -16.9% 24% 24% -26.2%
≤90d 21 -8.1% -16.9% 24% 24% -26.2%
all 21 -8.1% -16.9% 24% 24% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 24% -26.2%
10% -24.8% 24% -33.2%
15% -32.1% 24% -39.7%
20% -38.8% 24% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records