Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:14:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A6 0xa614…0baf sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$589 (-7%) realized −$587 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%13W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$323
7 days−$1,383
14 days−$234
30 days−$559
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$765
other 25% +$56
crypto 8% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -52.9% -57.4% 31% 31% -42.0%
≤30d 30 -9.4% -18.0% 37% 37% -16.4%
≤90d 31 +4.3% -5.7% 39% 39% -13.9%
all 36 +9.1% -1.3% 36% 36% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 36% -16.5%
10% -10.7% 33% -24.5%
15% -19.4% 33% -31.8%
20% -27.3% 28% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$269 vs −$179 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$587
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage234d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 42¢ 42¢ $194 $192 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$137 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $543 +$270 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $156 −$152 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $140 +$22 +16%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $633 −$624 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $298 +$105 +35%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $240 −$234 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $175 −$172 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $405 +$345 +85%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $135 −$135 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $478 +$321 +67%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $210 −$210 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $173 −$69 -40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $408 −$403 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $272 +$528 +194%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $55 +$195 +354%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $489 +$551 +113%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $19 +$81 +426%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $489 +$733 +150%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $330 −$325 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $49 +$201 +413%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Oct 30 $55 −$52 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Oct 30 $162 −$133 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Oct 30 $80 −$80 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Oct 30 $2 +$2 +100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Oct 30 $30 −$3 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $197 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 40¢ $126 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $170 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY 26¢ $267 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 47h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Mor BUY 15¢ $205 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 15¢ $75 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 15¢ $15 47h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 50¢ $30 2d
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 50¢ $78 2d
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 50¢ $12 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 78¢ $814 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $543 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $156 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $162 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 35¢ $134 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 35¢ $6 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $633 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 13¢ $32 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 13¢ $4 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 13¢ $1 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 13¢ $0 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 13¢ $1 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 13¢ $15 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 13¢ $0 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 13¢ $5 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 13¢ $4 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 13¢ $0 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 13¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.64 · official $576.64 · 128 history records