Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa614…5a86 crypto 58 markets active 6d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+3%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%25W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$34
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$6
sports 3% +$3
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -46.7% -51.8% 32% 23% -35.9%
≤30d 58 -13.8% -22.0% 43% 38% -10.5%
≤90d 58 -13.8% -22.0% 43% 38% -10.5%
all 58 -13.8% -22.0% 43% 38% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 38% -10.5%
10% -29.5% 33% -19.1%
15% -36.3% 31% -26.9%
20% -42.6% 31% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses25 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage8d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$3 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$8 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$13 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$3 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$19 +182%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$29 +137%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$16 +156%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$11 +208%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$5 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$14 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$6 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$10 +99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$3 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $16 +$9 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $27 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records