Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:09:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa612…5741 world 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%32W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$1
other 24% −$1
politics 18% +$1
sports 14% −$4
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 36% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 +0.8% -8.8% 42% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 69 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 1% -9.6%
all 76 -0.1% -9.7% 42% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses32 / 44
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage528d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 90¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $89 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $74 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $89 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $42 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $45 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $11 +$1 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $14 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $6 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $163 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $6 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $61 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $38 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $24 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $41 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $43 −$2 -5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 22 $51 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $1 $0 -7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $49 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 18 $3 −$1 -38%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $47 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $63 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $196 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $116 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $3 $0 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $22 $0 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $6 $0 +5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $42 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $5 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $34 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $3 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $42 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $8 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $26 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $15 42h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $34 47h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 47h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $47 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $17 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $5 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $24 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $14 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $18 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $25 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.00 (match) · 341 history records