Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:24:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa612…5cc9 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$246 (-19%) realized −$217 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$2
14 days−$230
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$56
sports 39% −$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -25.3% -32.4% 20% 20% -10.9%
≤30d 11 -43.1% -48.5% 18% 18% -46.8%
≤90d 11 -43.1% -48.5% 18% 18% -46.8%
all 11 -43.1% -48.5% 18% 18% -46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.5% 18% -46.8%
10% -53.5% 18% -51.9%
15% -57.9% 18% -56.5%
20% -62.1% 18% -60.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$41 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized−$217
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage17d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $236 $207 −$29 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $38 +$68 +177%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $33 −$32 -99%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $45 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $11 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan Jun 04 $94 −$87 -93%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $79 −$47 -60%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $63 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $67 +$75 +112%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $103 −$101 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $113 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $106 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $38 6h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $38 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $33 8h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $33 8h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 10¢ $11 8h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $10 8h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $45 29h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $26 2d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $180 3d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Lynn Vision 15¢ $5 10d
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan SELL FlyQuest RED 13¢ $3 11d
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan SELL FlyQuest RED 13¢ $1 11d
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan SELL FlyQuest RED 13¢ $1 11d
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan BUY FlyQuest RED 24¢ $51 11d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $51 11d
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan BUY FlyQuest RED 22¢ $43 11d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $43 11d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $32 11d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL NRG 17¢ $26 11d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL NRG 18¢ $6 11d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 41¢ $79 11d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 43¢ $63 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL TYLOO 100¢ $142 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 46¢ $67 11d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $67 11d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $140 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.87 · official $206.87 (match) · 36 history records