Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:39:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa60a…1613 crypto 1664 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,133 (-10%) realized −$2,133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate83%1438W / 285L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$410
7 days−$455
14 days−$454
30 days−$527
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$301
sports 0% −$7
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 698 -9.3% -17.9% 83% 14% -15.8%
≤30d 1100 -7.5% -16.3% 84% 17% -14.3%
≤90d 1723 -5.7% -14.7% 83% 17% -12.6%
all 1723 -5.7% -14.7% 83% 17% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 17% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 11% -21.0%
15% -30.3% 6% -28.6%
20% -37.1% 4% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1438 / 285
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1723 / 1664
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1723 Trades
no open positions (256 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-20? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-20? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Rockets Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Páfos FC win on 2026-01-21? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-01-21? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +217%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-20? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records