Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A6 0xa605…7e9a other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$598 (-1%) realized −$599 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%24W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$896per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$995now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$9
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$52
other 40% −$368
sports 12% −$212
culture 3% −$4
world 2% −$2
economics 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 -1.3% -10.7% 7% 2% -10.3%
all 126 +1.3% -8.3% 19% 13% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 13% -10.0%
10% -17.1% 13% -18.6%
15% -25.1% 11% -26.5%
20% -32.5% 11% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,359) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$20 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$995
Realized−$599
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses24 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage132d
Avg bet$896
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $530 $531 +$1 (+0%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $464 $463 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $1,420 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,593 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $486 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,139 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $1,791 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2,190 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $3,044 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 04 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 04 $128 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,912 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,111 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,195 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $165 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $236 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $214 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 23 $838 −$838 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,134 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,136 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,329 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $2,929 −$4 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $3,235 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,039 −$2 -0%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 05 $810 +$222 +27%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,285 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $910 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $3,684 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,436 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $3,253 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $2,189 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $3,035 −$3 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $912 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $1,598 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $1,510 −$2 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $301 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $464 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $348 2h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $349 4h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $482 5h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $483 8h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $500 27h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $501 29h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $425 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $425 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $466 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $466 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $486 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $486 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $460 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $460 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $530 10d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $528 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $529 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $862 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $864 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $863 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $864 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $819 15d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $821 15d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $732 15d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $733 15d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $936 20d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $937 20d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $848 21d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $849 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $994.54 · official $994.54 (match) · 471 history records