Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa605…5dc5 crypto 1141 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$152 (-3%) realized −$152 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%359W / 895L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day60.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$969
7 days−$975
14 days−$976
30 days−$1,098
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$145
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 475 -31.4% -38.0% 34% 29% -52.2%
≤30d 1254 -15.9% -23.9% 29% 25% -24.6%
≤90d 1254 -15.9% -23.9% 29% 25% -24.6%
all 1254 -15.9% -23.9% 29% 25% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 25% -24.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 19% -31.8%
15% -37.9% 7% -38.4%
20% -44.0% 5% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$152
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses359 / 895
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1254 / 1141
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day60.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 69¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 272 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.24 · official $0.96 (match) · 3500 history records