Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa603…8d7a other 263 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 252L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$36
sports 27% −$24
politics 7% −$6
economics 6% −$6
crypto 6% −$5
culture 6% −$6
world 4% −$8
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 262 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 252
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)262 / 263
History coverage139d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $191 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $346 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $589 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $269 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $287 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $341 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $214 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $404 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $135 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $282 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $296 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $458 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $288 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $241 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $438 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $353 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $140 $0 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $218 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $339 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $194 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $110 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $297 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $327 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $182 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $410 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $185 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 3h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 4h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 6h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 8h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 8h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $56 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $56 13h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $3 13h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $53 15h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $56 17h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 18h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 19h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 24h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 26h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $56 40h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $57 42h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 43h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 45h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.88 · official $55.88 (match) · 1446 history records