Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa5fd…36d1
world · 128 markets active 1d ago
0.0score
+$5,790 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,658 · open −$11,232
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,777
Realized+$9,658
Unrealized−$11,232
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses54 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions17
Markets (closed)111 / 128
History coverage118d
Avg bet$1,113
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 17 History 111 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$607
7 days−$1,316
14 days−$1,316
30 days−$1,316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1,509 $1,615 +$105 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 24¢ 9¢ $3,069 $1,089 −$1,979 (-64%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $4,859 $1,063 −$3,796 (-78%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Yes 10¢ 21¢ $315 $650 +$334 (+106%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4,164 $435 −$3,729 (-90%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $883 $313 −$570 (-65%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 23¢ 7¢ $902 $256 −$646 (-72%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $277 $143 −$134 (-48%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $171 $104 −$67 (-39%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $822 $45 −$777 (-95%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $9 $20 +$12 (+132%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? No 67¢ 94¢ $13 $19 +$5 (+40%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? No 29¢ 78¢ $6 $16 +$10 (+169%)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 36¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-56%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 17¢ 40¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+138%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? No 15¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? No 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $520 $0 −$520 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? No 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $496 −$460 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $164 −$146 -89%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Jun 10 $988 −$76 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $568 −$546 -96%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Jun 10 $11 −$6 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $80 −$53 -66%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? Apr 17 $217 +$11 +5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 15 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $5,336 −$4,182 -78%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026? Apr 13 $158 +$36 +23%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 10 $147 −$52 -35%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $1,001 −$566 -57%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? Apr 07 $3,059 −$2,203 -72%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Apr 07 $3,446 −$414 -12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 30 $14,558 +$6,942 +48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 30 $13,342 −$430 -3%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Mar 24 $4 −$2 -38%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 24 $186 +$5 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $1,116 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 23 $3,498 −$1,748 -50%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Mar 21 $1 $0 -12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 21 $61 −$11 -17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 21 $5 $0 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 21 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 21 $4 $0 +8%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Mar 21 $23 −$1 -6%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 21 $38 +$6 +15%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 21 $3,734 −$3,197 -86%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by March 20? Mar 18 $29 −$17 -59%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 18 $6,551 +$850 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 18 $4,113 +$830 +20%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in March? Mar 17 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $20 −$9 -45%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 17 $930 −$290 -31%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Mar 16 $4 −$2 -51%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Warriors vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Mar 16 $64 +$107 +167%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Mar 16 $437 −$67 -15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 16 $5,504 −$2,741 -50%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 15 $859 +$491 +57%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 12 $1 $0 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 11 $11 +$3 +26%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 11 $3 +$1 +23%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 11 $598 +$83 +14%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 11 $4 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 40% +$7,239
world 19% +$6,948
sports 14% −$5,769
economics 11% −$8,652
crypto 9% −$8,298
other 6% +$6,958
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 35h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $34 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 1¢ $20 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 39h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 6¢ $17 42h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 6¢ $12 42h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 6¢ $24 46h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 6¢ $41 46h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 46h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 47h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 47h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $122 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $169 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $28 47h
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $56 2d
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $912 2d
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $49 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? SELL No 0¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? SELL No 0¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? SELL No 0¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? SELL No 0¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? SELL No 0¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? SELL No 2¢ $27 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -78.4% -80.4% 0% 0% -23.1%
≤30d 8 -78.4% -80.4% 0% 0% -23.1%
≤90d 45 +17.0% +5.9% 31% 20% -19.4%
all 111 +34.4% +21.6% 49% 41% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.6% 41% -1.4%
10% +10.0% 34% -10.8%
15% ← realistic here -0.6% 25% -19.4%
20% -10.4% 22% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,777.30 · official $5,777.20 (match) · 3500 history records