Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A5 0xa5fc…1deb other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$257 (+11%) realized +$296 · open −$39
Gross ROI / mkt +87% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +69% what you keep after slip
Net edge+69%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$751now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$374
7 days+$231
14 days+$231
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$194
sports 7% +$278
crypto 7% −$150
world 3% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+69.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +92.2% +73.9% 53% 53% +6.0%
≤30d 20 +91.0% +72.8% 55% 55% +7.0%
≤90d 22 +87.3% +69.4% 59% 59% +8.4%
all 22 +87.3% +69.4% 59% 59% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +69.4% 59% +8.4%
10% +53.2% 59% -2.0%
15% +38.4% 59% -11.5%
20% +24.8% 36% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +87% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +183% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$63 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$751
Realized+$296
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)22 / 32
History coverage43d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $300 $272 −$28 (-9%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $76 +$30 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $162 +$77 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$48 +234%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$66 +321%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $76 −$59 -78%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$63 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$144 +1396%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$60 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$147 +97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$157 +103%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$43 +43%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 +$21 +68%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $51 +$23 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 14h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 31h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $68 37h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $86 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 40h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 40h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $76 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $76 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $76 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $62 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $152 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $152 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $751.06 · official $748.49 (match) · 59 history records