Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:16:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5f6…a659 sports 301 markets active 8d ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,977 (-0%) realized −$1,977 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%148W / 177L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,360per market
Trades / day124.1pace
Fees−$5,240est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$249
7 days−$249
14 days−$21,930
30 days+$865
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$15,248
other 15% −$15,232
crypto 0% −$1,920
world 0% −$1,313
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -94.7% -95.2% 0% 0% -97.6%
≤30d 308 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 39% -9.3%
≤90d 325 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 40% -10.3%
all 325 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 40% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 40% -10.3%
10% -20.2% 38% -18.9%
15% ← realistic here -27.9% 35% -26.7%
20% -35.0% 33% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +47% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$424 vs −$374 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,977
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses148 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$5,240
Open positions0
Markets (closed)325 / 301
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$1,360
Trades / day124.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 325 Trades
no open positions (60 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 28 $2 −$1 -59%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 28 $11 −$9 -87%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Jun 28 $3 −$6 -208%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $6 −$1 -27%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 28 $13 −$14 -106%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $24 −$25 -102%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $9 −$9 -105%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees SELL Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $7 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $23 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $99 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $58 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $0 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $0 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $0 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $177 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $0 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $0 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $0 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $0 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records