Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:18:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5f2…8b9f world 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%24W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$11
sports 30% −$1
other 21% $0
politics 4% +$1
crypto 2% $0
weather 2% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.9% -10.3% 20% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 28 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 4% -10.5%
≤90d 39 -1.1% -10.5% 26% 3% -10.1%
all 67 -1.9% -11.2% 36% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 1% -9.9%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses24 / 43
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage535d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $47 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $25 −$1 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +13%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $104 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $49 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $28 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $28 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $86 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $54 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $28 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $9 −$1 -14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $61 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $30 −$5 -18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $32 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 19 $3 $0 -12%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $34 −$2 -5%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $81 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $125 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $122 −$2 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $306 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $290 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $3 $0 +2%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? Apr 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 230-239 times April 4 - 11? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 13m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $19 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $24 45h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $24 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $24 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $24 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $17 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $16 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $23 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $27 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $27 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $19 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $10 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $9 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $22 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 220 history records