Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5f0…1fee other 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$94 (+6%) realized +$102 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%16W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$19
other 47% −$12
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -25.8% -32.8% 30% 30% -8.3%
≤30d 54 -25.8% -32.8% 30% 30% -8.3%
≤90d 54 -25.8% -32.8% 30% 30% -8.3%
all 54 -25.8% -32.8% 30% 30% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 30% -8.3%
10% -39.3% 28% -17.0%
15% -45.1% 28% -25.1%
20% -50.5% 19% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$16 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses16 / 38
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage5d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $59 +$38 +64%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $168 −$95 -56%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -61%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $18 +$10 +54%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $20 −$7 -33%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $81 +$76 +93%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $121 −$43 -36%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$2 -23%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$41 +41%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -94%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $7 −$6 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $23 +$5 +21%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $77 +$46 +60%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $39 +$19 +48%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $71 −$32 -46%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $80 −$54 -68%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 19 $31 +$23 +74%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $41 −$23 -56%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 19 $20 −$14 -67%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $9 +$6 +67%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $16 +$7 +42%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 17 $51 −$13 -26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -91%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -53%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 5m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $59 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 32¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $42 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $28 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 34¢ $5 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 61¢ $9 8h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $126 8h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $157 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $18 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $81 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 52¢ $76 20h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 20h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 20h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $101 20h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $20 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $142 20h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 23h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $27 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $23 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.50 · official $11.50 (match) · 152 history records