Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A5 0xa5ef…ce41 world 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+1%) realized +$37 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$3
sports 35% +$28
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 -3.0% -12.2% 71% 0% -8.4%
all 7 -3.0% -12.2% 71% 0% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -8.4%
10% -20.6% 0% -17.2%
15% -28.3% 0% -25.2%
20% -35.3% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.4 per $1 lost it wins $10.4
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$282
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage71d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 98¢ 96¢ $289 $282 −$7 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) May 11 $471 +$9 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $464 +$1 +0%
Spread: El Gouna SC (-1.5) May 09 $452 +$18 +4%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? May 08 $449 +$2 +0%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 23 $456 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? Apr 09 $11 −$3 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $289 1h
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) BUY Sevilla FC 98¢ $471 39d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $466 39d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $464 39d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-1.5) BUY El Mokawloon El Arab SC 96¢ $452 40d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $451 40d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $449 40d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 SELL Yes 2¢ $9 54d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 SELL Yes 2¢ $9 54d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 BUY Yes 2¢ $9 54d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 BUY Yes 2¢ $7 54d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 BUY Yes 2¢ $2 54d
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 SELL No 96¢ $456 55d
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 96¢ $456 55d
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 70d
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 70d
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 70d
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 70d
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 70d
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.87 · official $281.87 (match) · 22 history records