Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A5 0xa5ed…9bb9 sports 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,341 (+11%) realized +$2,378 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%51W / 45L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$224est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$339
7 days+$104
14 days+$682
30 days+$990
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$1,108
crypto 4% +$679
other 2% +$381
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.4% -10.8% 56% 56% -2.3%
≤30d 40 +13.1% +2.4% 55% 55% +6.4%
≤90d 88 +7.8% -2.5% 52% 52% -2.3%
all 96 +8.1% -2.2% 53% 52% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 52% -0.2%
10% -11.6% 52% -9.7%
15% -20.1% 51% -18.4%
20% -27.9% 45% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$179 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized+$2,378
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses51 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$224
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage146d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 56¢ 49¢ $293 $256 −$37 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $270 −$267 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$68 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $197 +$162 +83%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $202 +$80 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $102 +$98 +97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $200 +$202 +101%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 09 $403 +$152 +38%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $102 +$184 +180%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $102 +$111 +109%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $51 +$101 +197%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 04 $303 +$138 +46%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $102 +$121 +119%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $102 +$121 +119%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 31 $373 +$114 +31%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $202 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $102 +$176 +172%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $102 +$103 +101%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $102 +$148 +146%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $122 +$176 +144%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $102 +$121 +119%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $102 +$115 +114%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 May 26 $290 +$249 +86%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 26 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) May 25 $22 +$28 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 25 $300 +$267 +89%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 25 $243 −$239 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $101 +$71 +70%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 11 $303 +$187 +62%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 08 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 07 $299 +$190 +64%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 07 $301 +$195 +65%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $100 +$93 +94%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) Apr 23 $579 +$479 +83%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $300 −$296 -99%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $297 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $270 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $101 25h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $101 32h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $41 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $197 2d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $202 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 40¢ $102 2d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 50¢ $102 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $200 4d
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) BUY Spurs 72¢ $403 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 43¢ $51 9d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 36¢ $51 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 35¢ $102 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 39¢ $102 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 47¢ $102 10d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 32¢ $102 10d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $51 11d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 33¢ $51 12d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 68¢ $303 13d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 45¢ $102 16d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 45¢ $102 16d
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) BUY Spurs 76¢ $373 17d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 17d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 50¢ $102 18d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming 36¢ $102 19d
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster 54¢ $101 19d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY Sharks 40¢ $102 20d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming 46¢ $102 20d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 49¢ $102 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.41 · official $256.41 (match) · 167 history records