Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5eb…93bf sports 250 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$71,089 (-10%) realized −$71,089 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%129W / 118L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,909per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$3,557est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$615
7 days+$3,240
14 days−$22,272
30 days−$7,132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$73,703
sports 33% −$5,278
crypto 0% −$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +2.5% -7.2% 57% 52% +6.7%
≤30d 102 -11.5% -19.9% 47% 46% -12.1%
≤90d 206 -7.4% -16.2% 51% 48% -19.7%
all 247 -5.7% -14.7% 52% 46% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 46% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 34% -27.4%
15% -30.3% 28% -34.4%
20% -37.2% 23% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$2,941) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,388 vs −$2,189 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71,089
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses129 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$3,557
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 250
History coverage127d
Avg bet$2,909
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions (76 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $2,018 +$841 +42%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $2,125 −$2,100 -99%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $981 +$607 +62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $615 −$600 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $496 +$334 +67%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1,013 +$803 +79%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $611 +$394 +64%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $307 +$805 +263%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Haiti win o Jun 14 $813 +$903 +111%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,032 +$1,414 +35%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $305 +$365 +120%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $510 +$306 +60%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $347 −$340 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $1,017 +$1,361 +134%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $404 −$398 -98%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $793 −$787 -99%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $121 −$119 -98%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $968 +$152 +16%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $817 +$151 +18%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $1 $0 +38%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $458 −$453 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $387 +$72 +18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $202 +$101 +50%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 07 $2,714 −$2,700 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $142 −$140 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2,623 +$518 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2,033 +$589 +29%
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 06 $1,462 −$1,450 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 05 $253 −$250 -99%
Joventut vs. Saski Baskonia Jun 05 $406 +$344 +85%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $384 −$380 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $2,969 +$813 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $7,054 −$4,081 -58%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $3,405 −$3,400 -100%
Andorra vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $2,011 +$452 +22%
Andorra vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $377 −$370 -98%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $9,682 −$9,500 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $5,858 −$5,750 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $79 −$77 -97%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $3,053 −$3,000 -98%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $923 −$900 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $1,231 −$1,200 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $4,844 +$6,410 +132%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $204 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $2,859 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 70¢ $2,018 3h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 58¢ $1,013 24h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 56¢ $507 24h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 40¢ $509 25h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 66¢ $606 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $1,589 37h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 61¢ $981 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 16¢ $615 39h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Denis Shapovalov 100¢ $830 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,816 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,013 44h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 59¢ $496 46h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Martin Landaluce 66¢ $1,005 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 39¢ $611 2d
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,112 2d
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 27¢ $307 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY 73¢ $2,016 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 43¢ $1,017 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Haiti win o BUY 47¢ $813 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY 74¢ $2,016 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY $62 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 53¢ $608 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler SELL Martin Landaluce 100¢ $670 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Martin Landaluce 45¢ $305 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt BUY Jamie Mackenzie 37¢ $2 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 53¢ $816 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 32¢ $510 4d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 36¢ $347 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $2,378 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1472 history records