Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A5 0xa5e3…40e2 sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 780d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$83 (+1%) realized +$85 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate37%28W / 47L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$103
politics 26% −$4
other 20% −$8
world 5% −$9
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -18.8% -26.6% 38% 29% +2.2%
≤30d 38 -21.5% -29.0% 37% 29% +7.0%
≤90d 39 -18.5% -26.3% 38% 31% +22.9%
all 75 -1.1% -10.5% 37% 25% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 25% -8.4%
10% -19.1% 24% -17.1%
15% -26.9% 19% -25.1%
20% -34.1% 17% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

780d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses28 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)75 / 81
History coverage780d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 77¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 51¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $6 +$4 +75%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +35%
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +62%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $3 +$7 +197%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $11 −$4 -42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Dani Olmo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 $0 -7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$5 +119%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $3 $0 -11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +28%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $37 +$45 +124%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +29%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $4 −$3 -58%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Lakers vs. Pistons May 21 $18 +$22 +122%
Sabres vs. Devils Mar 23 $60 +$58 +96%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? Jan 30 $210 $0 -0%
Blue Jackets vs. Blackhawks Jan 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Sabres vs. Maple Leafs Jan 30 $6 +$6 +104%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Jan 30 $4 +$11 +270%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 27 $200 $0 -0%
Rockets vs. Pistons Jan 27 $5 +$8 +156%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 23 $200 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Hawks Jan 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 21 $190 $0 -0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) Jan 21 $14 +$16 +113%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $5 11h
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? SELL Yes 45¢ $6 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $9 11h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 34¢ $5 11h
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $3 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 20¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 23¢ $2 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 18¢ $1 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 22¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 18¢ $4 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 20¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $3 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $2 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 30¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 30¢ $0 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $2 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 33¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 33¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 31¢ $3 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 64¢ $3 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 65¢ $3 3d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 34¢ $3 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 69¢ $6 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 69¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.13 · official $14.13 (match) · 204 history records