Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5de…33b5 sports 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$366 (-4%) realized −$481 · open +$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%30W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$175
14 days−$500
30 days−$500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$493
other 3% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +2.7% -7.1% 52% 52% -7.2%
≤30d 63 -8.1% -16.8% 48% 48% -14.5%
≤90d 63 -8.1% -16.8% 48% 48% -14.5%
all 63 -8.1% -16.8% 48% 48% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 48% -14.5%
10% -24.8% 44% -22.7%
15% -32.1% 41% -30.2%
20% -38.7% 32% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$124 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$311
Realized−$481
Unrealized+$115
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses30 / 33
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage12d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ 100¢ $108 $208 +$100 (+92%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ 59¢ $88 $104 +$16 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$106 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $307 −$305 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $239 +$66 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $198 +$43 +22%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $65 −$63 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $98 −$97 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $151 −$149 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $146 +$154 +105%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $202 −$197 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $231 −$228 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $237 +$181 +76%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $155 −$152 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $352 +$85 +24%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $123 −$103 -84%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $407 +$207 +51%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $186 +$117 +63%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $181 +$168 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $98 +$61 +62%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $98 +$172 +174%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $181 −$179 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 14 $100 −$86 -86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $66 −$65 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $321 +$116 +36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $299 +$120 +40%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $324 −$322 -99%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $84 −$60 -72%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$385 +383%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $109 −$107 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 13 $100 +$127 +128%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $200 +$32 +16%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $99 +$101 +101%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 12 $149 +$155 +104%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $189 −$186 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $99 +$85 +86%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $186 +$267 +144%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $96 +$90 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $117 −$115 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $79 +$38 +48%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Jun 10 $175 −$74 -42%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W Jun 10 $123 −$122 -99%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $51 +$92 +179%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $94 −$92 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $203 −$197 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $287 −$280 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $98 +$91 +93%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $99 +$97 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 09 $199 +$99 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $89 5m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $110 51m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $101 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $307 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $239 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 98¢ $240 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $198 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 60¢ $81 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $65 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $98 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $151 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $146 2d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY SSG Landers 22¢ $202 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 57¢ $231 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 40¢ $155 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $298 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 54¢ $138 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports 6¢ $20 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $352 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 35¢ $123 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $471 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $304 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $242 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 47¢ $143 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $165 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 60¢ $186 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $349 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 65¢ $138 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 64¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.43 · official $291.19 · 126 history records