Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5dd…345c other 282 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$3,224 (-9%) realized −$3,413 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%105W / 176L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$198est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,122
7 days−$2,225
14 days−$2,244
30 days−$2,861
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$1,025
sports 32% −$1,898
crypto 3% −$85
finance 3% −$393
culture 0% −$75
world 0% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -26.6% -33.6% 33% 29% -19.2%
≤30d 93 -32.7% -39.1% 30% 28% -20.6%
≤90d 281 -13.5% -21.7% 37% 36% -18.0%
all 281 -13.5% -21.7% 37% 36% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 36% -18.0%
10% -29.2% 33% -25.8%
15% -36.1% 30% -33.0%
20% -42.3% 23% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$56 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,413
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses105 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$198
Open positions1
Markets (closed)281 / 282
History coverage57d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? No 44¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-05-02? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Leandro Trossard: Anytime Goalscorer Yes 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Nottingham Forest FC leading at halftime? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-09? No 31¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? No 27¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $195 $0 −$195 (-100%)
AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: Draw at halftime? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: Draw at halftime? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Will Brentford FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Under 86¢ 0¢ $1,250 $0 −$1,250 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: Draw at halftime? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$5 -22%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$61 -60%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $102 −$75 -73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $107 −$78 -73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $254 −$250 -98%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $203 −$174 -86%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $482 +$33 +7%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $776 −$627 -81%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $484 −$2 -0%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,019 −$37 -4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $40 −$26 -64%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $92 −$85 -93%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $554 +$90 +16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $988 +$135 +14%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $117 +$61 +52%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,588 +$253 +16%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $149 −$61 -41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,019 −$83 -8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $87 −$60 -69%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $304 +$246 +81%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $61 −$3 -5%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $31 −$11 -34%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,812 −$1,250 -69%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $506 +$373 +74%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $204 −$71 -35%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $39 −$38 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $204 −$34 -17%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $304 +$265 +87%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,062 +$195 +18%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $353 +$154 +44%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $178 −$56 -31%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $237 +$69 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $707 +$102 +14%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $92 −$73 -80%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $61 +$3 +5%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $122 −$120 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $856 −$176 -21%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2,060 −$467 -23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $283 −$212 -75%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $653 +$172 +26%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $51 −$40 -79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $395 +$171 +43%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $173 +$189 +109%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $46 −$38 -83%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $901 −$393 -44%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $151 +$57 +38%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $177 +$130 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 39m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 41m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 43m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $105 45m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $91 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $40 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $127 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $193 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $254 2h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $152 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Under 9¢ $29 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 31¢ $5 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 31¢ $102 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $254 5h
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand SELL No 8¢ $25 8h
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY No 51¢ $203 8h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 96¢ $514 8h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 89¢ $482 8h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 15¢ $148 8h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 76¢ $776 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $332 17h
Australia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 84¢ $981 17h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 17h
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 89¢ $803 17h
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 78¢ $216 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 704 history records