Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5dd…9136 sports 344 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$25 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%197W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$57
14 days−$20
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$19
other 23% +$27
crypto 11% +$9
weather 5% −$8
politics 2% $0
world 2% −$15
finance 1% −$2
culture 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -16.9% -24.8% 51% 51% -24.8%
≤30d 307 -1.3% -10.7% 59% 59% -10.8%
≤90d 328 +0.1% -9.5% 60% 60% -9.6%
all 328 +0.1% -9.5% 60% 60% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 60% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 60% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 60% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 60% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses197 / 131
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions16
Markets (closed)328 / 344
History coverage33d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? Yes 55¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+82%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 60¢ 99¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+64%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? No 64¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+56%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? No 56¢ 79¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? No 60¢ 63¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 60¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 56¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 60¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 56¢ 53¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 60¢ 92¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+54%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 55¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-86%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 60¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +61%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 56¢ $5 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 5h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 60¢ $5 6h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 60¢ $5 6h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $5 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 10h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $5 11h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 59¢ $5 13h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 59¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $5 25h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $5 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $5 29h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 60¢ $5 30h
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 60¢ $5 31h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 64¢ $5 32h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 62¢ $5 34h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 61¢ $5 35h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY No 56¢ $5 45h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $5 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $5 2d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Los Angeles Thieves 62¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 65¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $5 2d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY LOS 62¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 55¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.29 · official $77.52 (match) · 669 history records