Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A5 0xa5db…0828 other 1555 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%1551W / 3L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$24
sports 44% +$4
world 1% +$1
politics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 376 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 663 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1349 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 1% -9.4%
all 1554 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.97 per $1 lost it wins $3.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1551 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1554 / 1555
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1554 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austin Hedges: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Emam Ashour: 1+ assists Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Facundo Pellistri: 5+ shots Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Justin Rose finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Logan O'Hoppe: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will "Hunter's Fury" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 4 Winner Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will something have the highest ACS at Masters London 2026 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Mohammad Mohebbi: 3+ goals + assists Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 2+ goals + assists Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Nathaniel Lowe: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Daniel Schneemann: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Gabriel Arias: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Unai Simón: 2+ saves Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: Verso Time (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will a player from Colombia win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Nico Williams: 1+ shots Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Dani Olmo: 3+ shots Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Aymeric Laporte: 2+ goals Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Borja Iglesias: 2+ assists Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Wydad Athletic Club: Wydad Athletic Club 1 Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
FathUnionSport vs. Olympic Dcheira: Olympic Dcheira 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-6.5) vs TDK (+6.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs TDK (+3.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FOKUS (-9.5) vs Phantom (+9.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
StarCraft II: Classic vs Zoun - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Overwatch: JD Gaming vs Solus Victorem - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: INOX Division (-3.5) vs Infinite (+3.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Stusek (-1.5) vs Passola (+1.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Janicijevic vs. Matoula: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Yuito Suzuki: 1+ shots Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: Mentality Monster (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Ritsu Dōan: 4+ shots Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Keisuke Gotō: 4+ shots on target Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots on target Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Junya Itō: 2+ assists Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Ao Tanaka: 2+ goals + assists Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Anis Ben Slimane: 2+ goals Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Ketel Marte: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Connelly Early: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Trevor Rogers: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austin Hedges: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 5m
Emam Ashour: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 23h
Facundo Pellistri: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 26h
Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 27h
Will Justin Rose finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $5 27h
Logan O'Hoppe: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 28h
Will "Hunter's Fury" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G BUY Yes 100¢ $5 28h
Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves BUY No 100¢ $5 29h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 4 Winner BUY Toronto KOI 100¢ $5 29h
Mohammad Mohebbi: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 29h
Alexis Saelemaekers: 2+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 29h
Nathaniel Lowe: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 30h
Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 30h
Gabriel Arias: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 30h
Daniel Schneemann: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 30h
Unai Simón: 2+ saves BUY No 100¢ $5 30h
Will something have the highest ACS at Masters London 2026 BUY No 100¢ $5 31h
Dani Olmo: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 32h
Nico Williams: 1+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 32h
Aymeric Laporte: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 32h
Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 32h
Borja Iglesias: 2+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 32h
Game Handicap: Verso Time (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) BUY Verso Time 100¢ $5 32h
Will a player from Colombia win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $5 33h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: Draw at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $5 34h
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Wydad Athletic Club: Wydad Athletic Club 1 BUY Under 100¢ $4 34h
FathUnionSport vs. Olympic Dcheira: Olympic Dcheira 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 34h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs TDK (+3.5) BUY TDK 100¢ $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $4.97 (match) · 3500 history records