Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:59:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5d9…ee1e crypto 927 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$2,190 (-25%) realized −$249 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate42%388W / 525L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day58.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$84
14 days−$45
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$235
weather 10% +$64
other 3% −$69
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -12.6% -20.9% 30% 30% -18.1%
≤30d 243 -11.9% -20.3% 30% 28% -13.7%
≤90d 913 -6.1% -15.0% 42% 23% -12.2%
all 913 -6.1% -15.0% 42% 23% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 23% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 14% -20.6%
15% -30.6% 11% -28.3%
20% -37.4% 10% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$249
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses388 / 525
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)913 / 927
History coverage48d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day58.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 913 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 80¢ $25 $44 +$19 (+75%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 12¢ 91¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+660%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 38¢ 71¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+85%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 37¢ 10¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-74%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 30¢ 5¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 29¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 10? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 10? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$6 +245%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$5 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$8 +637%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$6 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 +$5 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$7 +301%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +121%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$5 +121%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$5 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$5 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$5 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$6 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$7 +338%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +155%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 73¢ $119 46m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $103 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 29h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 29h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.22 · official $73.22 (match) · 3500 history records