Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A5 0xa5d8…cf41 sports 59 markets active 6h ago coverage 16d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,820 (+9%) realized +$2,820 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%24W / 35L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$519per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$401est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,170
other 2% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -26.1% -33.1% 40% 37% -14.9%
≤30d 59 -34.3% -40.6% 41% 39% -13.4%
≤90d 59 -34.3% -40.6% 41% 39% -13.4%
all 59 -34.3% -40.6% 41% 39% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.6% 39% -13.4%
10% -46.3% 34% -21.7%
15% -51.5% 27% -29.2%
20% -56.2% 15% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$671) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -43% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$373 vs −$288 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,820
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses24 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$401
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage16d
Avg bet$519
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $435 +$218 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $491 +$49 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $406 +$426 +105%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $275 −$270 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $391 +$219 +56%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $357 +$260 +73%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $232 −$229 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $414 +$206 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $378 +$161 +43%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $291 −$271 -93%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $326 −$320 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $245 +$714 +291%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $218 −$213 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $498 −$490 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $153 +$208 +136%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $207 −$203 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $205 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $611 −$299 -49%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $914 −$901 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $164 −$160 -98%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $1,029 +$493 +48%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $841 −$825 -98%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $1,039 −$20 -2%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $1,009 +$438 +43%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $1,016 −$1,001 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $1,524 +$1,606 +105%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $1,229 −$1,003 -82%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $1,461 +$470 +32%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $1,008 +$360 +36%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $1,038 −$20 -2%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $103 −$100 -98%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $1,007 +$307 +30%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $1,008 +$342 +34%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,005 +$184 +18%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $921 −$10 -1%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $404 +$176 +44%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $674 −$662 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $247 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $408 −$364 -89%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $421 −$415 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $402 +$97 +24%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $77 −$15 -20%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $302 +$64 +21%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $304 +$213 +70%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $331 −$327 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys SELL Eva Lys 100¢ $653 6h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 66¢ $434 7h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 43¢ $1 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $540 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 91¢ $491 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $832 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $406 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $275 23h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Denis Shapovalov 100¢ $610 24h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 27¢ $10 24h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 66¢ $283 25h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 65¢ $98 25h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Nikola Bartunkova 100¢ $617 25h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 57¢ $355 26h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 64¢ $2 26h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 31¢ $204 29h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $232 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $621 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $414 46h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $539 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $99 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 67¢ $202 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 72¢ $176 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 25¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 34¢ $286 2d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 40¢ $326 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $959 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 25¢ $245 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 23¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records