Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5d0…2527 sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$183 (-10%) realized −$654 · open +$471
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day104.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$978now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$86
sports 38% +$362
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +7.6% -2.6% 34% 31% -23.1%
≤30d 32 +7.6% -2.6% 34% 31% -23.1%
≤90d 32 +7.6% -2.6% 34% 31% -23.1%
all 32 +7.6% -2.6% 34% 31% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.6% 31% -23.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 28% -30.5%
15% -20.4% 25% -37.2%
20% -28.2% 22% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late +79% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$42 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$978
Realized−$654
Unrealized+$471
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions10
Markets (closed)32 / 42
History coverage4d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day104.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Under 23¢ 97¢ $95 $400 +$304 (+319%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 31¢ 92¢ $86 $257 +$171 (+198%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 30¢ 30¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $81 $79 −$2 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 78¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $92 −$92 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $18 +$138 +786%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $11 +$7 +61%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $84 +$134 +159%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $62 +$315 +510%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $92 +$52 +57%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $73 −$73 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +20%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2 +$3 +226%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 +$17 +28%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $82 −$82 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 30m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $7 31m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 34m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $12 37m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $2 38m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $1 39m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $1 40m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $6 46m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $4 47m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $2 51m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1 51m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $2 51m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $1 53m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $1 55m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $1 57m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $1 57m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $3 57m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $18 58m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $3 58m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $1 59m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $3 59m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $16 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $978.43 · official $959.01 · 403 history records