Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5cf…8cc5 sports 542 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$53,225 (-24%) realized −$53,368 · open +$143
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%240W / 298L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$407per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$2,661est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,037now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 100d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$13,396
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -56.2% -60.4% 29% 29% -44.2%
≤30d 117 +20.0% +8.6% 43% 42% -29.5%
≤90d 480 -2.4% -11.7% 44% 43% -18.6%
all 538 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 44% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 44% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 41% -23.2%
15% -26.2% 36% -30.7%
20% -33.4% 31% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$550) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$380 vs −$353 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$1,037
Realized−$53,368
Unrealized+$143
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses240 / 298
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$2,661
Open positions4
Markets (closed)538 / 542
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$407
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 538 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner T1 85¢ 100¢ $425 $500 +$75 (+18%)
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Deep Cross Gaming 52¢ 55¢ $260 $272 +$12 (+5%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 70¢ 100¢ $100 $143 +$43 (+43%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ 24¢ $110 $122 +$12 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $340 +$60 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $360 +$68 +19%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS Jun 27 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $305 −$305 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $85 −$85 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $300 +$200 +67%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY Jun 26 $110 −$110 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $240 +$160 +66%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $299 −$295 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $127 −$127 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $232 +$35 +15%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $195 −$195 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $175 −$70 -40%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $185 −$185 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $113 −$113 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $155 −$155 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $730 +$270 +37%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $245 −$245 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $710 −$710 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $450 −$450 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 17 $530 −$530 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $12 +$9 +72%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $485 +$515 +106%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $635 −$635 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $340 +$160 +47%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $360 −$360 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $175 +$325 +186%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $310 +$190 +61%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $280 +$220 +79%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $880 +$120 +14%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $255 +$245 +96%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $180 +$320 +178%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $550 +$660 +120%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $235 −$235 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $360 +$639 +178%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $790 −$460 -58%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $200 +$299 +150%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $190 +$310 +163%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $210 −$210 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$399 +400%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $79 +$20 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $101 −$99 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ $55 26m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ $5 28m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ $13 29m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ $16 29m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ $4 29m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ $8 30m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ $4 30m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ $1 30m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ $4 30m
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Deep Cross Gaming 52¢ $245 1h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Deep Cross Gaming 52¢ $15 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $400 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $425 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $340 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $428 2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 70¢ $101 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $6 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $249 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $105 3h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 39¢ $3 19h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS BUY LOS 40¢ $200 19h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 39¢ $9 19h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Kiwoom DRX 61¢ $115 20h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Kiwoom DRX 61¢ $28 20h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Kiwoom DRX 61¢ $51 20h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Kiwoom DRX 61¢ $109 21h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Kiwoom DRX 61¢ $1 21h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 17¢ $4 23h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 17¢ $1 23h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 17¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,037.45 · official $1,032.45 (match) · 3500 history records